Airbus Projects Global Demand for 43,420 Aircraft by 2044

Airbus GMF 2025: people and commerce driving air traffic growth

Airbus GMF 2025
©Airbus

Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2025–2044 outlines a projected demand for 43,420 new aircraft globally, including 34,250 single-aisle and 9,170 widebody aircraft.

According to the latest GMF, the global in-service fleet is forecast to increase from 24,730 in 2024 to 49,210 by 2044, while 18,930 aircraft will be retired during the same period.

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Airbus reports that long-term passenger traffic is forecast to grow 3.6% annually, driven by expanded GDP, increasing urbanisation, and over 1.5 billion additional middle-class travellers, as outlined in its GMF data release.

GMF 2025-44 Summary

Drivers of traffic growth

  • People +1.5 bn more middle classes – the likeliest demographic to travel by air
  • GDP and commerce. Expanding economies (GDP +2.5%), world trade (+2.6%), urban population (+1.2 bn),improved infrastructure, increasing accessibility to aviation

The growth rates

  • Long term annual passenger traffic growth: 3.6%
  • The GMF is a long term 20 year forecast taking disruptions into account (such as tariffs)
  • Currently limited impact of tariffs on air traffic

Satisfying global traffic growth

  • Sector’s 20 year requirement for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft (v 42,430 GMF24)
  • 34,250 typically single aisle (v 33,510 GMF24), 9,170 typically widebody (v 8,920 GMF24)
  • Global in service fleet to grow by 24,480 aircraft (from 24,730 (end 2024) to 49,210 (in 2044))
  • Some 18,930 aircraft will be retired (v 18,460 GMF24)

Emerging traffic flows and new markets

  • Domestic India 8.9% is the fastest. India subcontinent to Middle East 5.8%
  • Asia Emerging to PRC 8.5%. Domestic Emerging Asia 7.6%
  • Intra Middle East 5.2%. Emerging Asia to Middle East 5.3%
  • Compared to the fastest mature market growth is 3.8% for Western Europe to Middle East, CentralEurope, Asia developed and Middle East to USA.

Airbus highlights that the GMF 2025 model links key macroeconomic and demographic indicators with sector-wide decarbonisation policies, including SAF utilisation and evolving CO₂ pricing.

The forecast is aircraft agnostic—focused on demand by size category rather than model type—and reflects anticipated long-term trends in air travel rather than short-term fluctuations.

Aerospace, Reports