Boeing CMO 2025–2044: Africa Fleet to Double Amid 6% Traffic Growth
Africa: 1,205 new aircraft forecast through 2044, with 72% single-aisle share.
Paris Air Show June 15, 2025—Africa is among the highest-growth regions identified in Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook 2025–2044 (CMO), with airline traffic forecast to expand 6% annually, supported by a young population and forecast GDP growth averaging 4%.
Breaking Down Africa’s 1,205 Aircraft Forecast
Boeing projects 1,205 aircraft deliveries to African airlines by 2044, growing the region’s fleet from 744 to 1,680 aircraft.
Single-aisle types are expected to account for 72% of new deliveries, followed by widebodies at 20%, regional jets at 7%, and freighters at 1%.
Emerging markets, with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks and sustained aviation investment, will play an outsized role in global air traffic growth.
Africa Still Trails in Short-Haul Intra-Regional Travel
Fleet growth is expected to outpace global averages, with annual expansion of 4.4% in Africa, compared to a projected global average of 3.4%.
Boeing notes that “short-haul international travel is less developed in Africa than in other emerging markets and represents a significant growth opportunity.”
LCC Presence Remains Minimal
Domestic and intra-Africa capacity remains constrained by limited regulatory harmonisation—low-cost carriers currently operate only 1% of regional capacity, compared to 20% on Europe–Africa routes.
Single-Aisle Jets Expected to Dominate Deliveries
Modern single-aisle aircraft remain a cornerstone of Boeing’s forecast for Africa, enabling direct service expansion across both underserved city pairs and secondary intra-Africa markets.
According to the forecast, “fleet growth will favour single-aisle airplanes… enabling airlines to serve a variety of markets within Africa and to nearby regions.”
SAATM Still the Swing Factor in Africa’s Growth Curve
The CMO assumes sustained progress on the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), which Boeing identifies as a critical enabler for regional connectivity and future delivery realisation. Continued SAATM momentum could allow the African fleet to “more than double through 2044.”
Airline industry business models have also significantly diversified over the last couple of decades. Airlines are expanding options to provide more price points and service levels to match consumer needs.
Boeing CMO 2025–2044: Africa Region
- 2024 fleet: 744
- Deliveries to 2044: 1,205 → 965 for growth → 240 for replacement
- Fleet in 2044: 1,680
- Delivery types: → 72% single-aisle → 20% widebody → 7% regional jet → 1% freighter
- Annual fleet growth: 4.4%
- Average traffic growth (RPK): 6%
- GDP growth assumption: 4%